Kadyrov planning escape into exile?
It’s reported that the Chechen crime lord is seeking sanctuary for his family in the United Arab Emirates. Is this because the boat is leaking in the Kremlin?
Although the ship is not sinking fast, it is filling with water. At some point the sinking will become too fast for the rats to escape. So where are they running to?
The basics: russian elite were never patriots.
They were always looters and murderers. They cashed in on the chaos in russia and reinvested their loot back into safe businesses - washing their ill gotten gains back into a legitimate financial system.
$500m yachts, London mansions, French vineyards and Italian Villas - not purchased for a love of culture, but for financial stability - out of the grasp from Putin and his murderous security apparatus. An example is Alisher Usmanov - who avoided Putin’s clampdown on Oligarch wealth by moving £Billions os assets into other peoples names and that includes a £455million super yacht.
The rules of the game mean they have to quit Putin’s russia while they still have assets, because sooner or later Putin will come for them and disappear the Oligarch. This explains why Oligarchs are going to great lengths to move their assets and wash their money into Europe, through the likes of Cyprus, Malta, France, Italy, the UK and even Israel.
With Europe cracking down by sanctioning individuals, the new promised land is east.
Dubai
The shift of wealth fleeing to Dubai instead of Europe, is not just a change of direction, it is a downgrade in security for them too. If you have money you can buy anything your heart desires in Dubai - but what you can’t buy - is legal certainty. The law in the UAE, is whatever the Sheikh says. If Putin asks for a head to roll, it does - out of geopolitical interests.
This means where Oligarchs and the wealthy russians are moving to Dubai, they are exchanging long term security in return for short term comforts. A form of karma for the very people who helped bring about the destruction of the rule of law in russia, and washed their ill gotten gains away, outside of Russia.
The Emirates offers everything the Kleptocrats need: Luxury, discretion and no questions asked. Want to mover $3million into a condo for cash - in lawless Dubai, that is not a problem. Want to register a company with fake shareholders? Not a problem in Dubai.
But here’s the catch: The United Arab Emirates is not a liberal democracy. It is an autocracy, where rules are merely guidelines - until you become a problem. Embarrass or piss the ruling elite in Dubai off, you can loose everything you have in a day. No courts, no appeals - just secret deals between despots. By the time you find out you are being investigated - it’s already too late, the investigation is already in its final stages. Russians wanted in Moscow for any infringement - are handed over to the russian authorities in an instant.
So while Dubai is the new playground for the russian elite, the minute they are wanted by Moscow - they and their illicit gains and assets are seized, never to be seen again. Hint: If you are running away to hide in an Islamic Monarchy, do your homework on what may constitute a crime in Dubai. All those glamorous Instagram posts and parties where morality laws are broken everyday - is just the start for things to come crashing down overnight, if you are at the bottom of the feeding chain.
Kadyrov has found an escape route. Or so he thinks.
This brings us to Ramsan Kadyrov’s escape plan: The thug who was appointed by Putin to suppress and rule Chechnya with a pick axe. An evil warlord with private torture chambers, who swore loyalty to Vladimir Putin.
Unlike other russian elite, he has essentially been confined to Chechnya. He has had to ship in al his luxuries - from fleets of Mercedes G-Wagons to golden bathtubs. His name was already toxic long before the Magnitsky sanctions came into effect. Unlike other elites, he chose to double down in supporting Putin - so his family never went for foreign passports and European assets.
However he is now reportedly making moves to escape. According to Ukrainian media outlet Istories - “
According to the report, Kadyrov has sought assurances from Middle Eastern officials to safeguard his family and assets should his rule over Chechnya end. While IStories does not specify the countries involved, it notes that Kadyrov has longstanding ties with "Muslim monarchies" in the region.
The Chechen leader is known to regularly travel to the United Arab Emirates, where past reporting claimed that he has used an elite villa on an artificial island of Palm Jumeirah as an unofficial Chechen "embassy" since at least 2014.
Kadyrov, who has ruled Chechnya with significant autonomy for nearly two decades in exchange for loyalty to the Kremlin, is believed to be preparing for a potential departure from power due to his worsening health. According to sources cited by IStories, he is suspicious of any guarantees offered by Moscow should he step down from office.”
This will be seen as a pre-emotive betrayal by Putin and the Kremlin. This is the regimes pit bull, trusted to keep other elites in line with fear, torture and death - is now hedging his bets. Kadyrov knows the system is collapsing.
But there is a flaw in Kadyrov’s plan. When Putin picks the phone up and tells the Sheikh he wants Kadyrov back on a plane or disappeared, the Sheikhs will protect their cash flow with Russia and oblige every request from Putin.
Up to this point, while Generals, Oligarch and wealth russians were expected to betray Putin - Kadyrov was always the one safe bet for Putin. Not anymore, Kadyrov wants his kids and family to find safe harbour in Doha. When the last line of thieves begins looking for a way out - it signals to everyone else to bail from the sinking ship. The message to them is Run! Run Fast! Run Now!
Without the Caucuses kept in check, the Chechens and others smell blood - and they want their revenge. They know for example that the two Chechen wars were instigated and begun by Putin
A brief history of the Chechen Wars: because it’s really important!
The First Chechen War:
During the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, there was an anti-Soviet revolution in Chechnya, which ultimately led to Chechnya declaring independence. In 1992, Chechen and Ingush leaders signed an agreement splitting the joint Checheno–Ingush republic in two, with Ingushetia joining the Russian Federation and Chechnya remaining independent.
The tension between Chechnya and Russia over independence ultimately led to Russian intervention in the republic, in which the Russians covertly tried to oust the government of Dzhokhar Dudayev.
The First Chechen War began in 1994, when Russian forces entered Chechnya on the premise of restoring constitutional order. Following nearly two years of brutal fighting, with a death toll exceeding 100,000 by some estimates, the 1996 Khasavyurt ceasefire agreement was signed and Russian troops were withdrawn from the republic.
Political tensions were fueled in part by allegedly Chechen or pro-Chechen terrorist and criminal activity in Russia, as well as by border clashes. On 16 November 1996, in Kaspiysk (Dagestan), a bomb destroyed an apartment building housing Russian border guards, killing 68 people. The 1997 election brought to power the separatist president Aslan Maskhadov. In 1998 and 1999, President Maskhadov survived several assassination attempts, blamed on the Russian intelligence services.
In March 1999, General Gennady Shpigun, the Kremlin's envoy to Chechnya, was kidnapped at the airport in Grozny and ultimately found dead in 2000 during the war. On 7 March 1999, in response to the abduction of General Shpigun, Interior Minister Sergei Stepashin called for an invasion of Chechnya.
In late May 1999, Russia announced that it was closing the Russian-Chechnya border in an attempt to combat attacks and criminal activity; border guards were ordered to shoot suspects on sight. This was followed by a military campaign in Dagestan in which Russia claimed several hundred militants were killed in the fighting and the Russian side reported 275 servicemen killed and approximately 900 wounded.
Before the wake of the Dagestani campaign had settled, a series of bombings took place in Russia (in Moscow and in Volgodonsk) and in the Dagestani town of Buynaksk. On 4 September 1999, 62 people died in an apartment building housing members of families of Russian soldiers.
Over the next two weeks, the bombs targeted three other apartment buildings and a mall; in total over 350 people were killed. The then Prime Minister Putin quickly blamed the attacks on Chechen militants and despite no evidence linking the bombings to Chechens; ordered the bombing campaign of Chechnya.
Next 👉 Putin named as the architect for the false flag bombing
Unsurprisingly - Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agents were caught by local police for planting one of the bombs, but were later released on orders from Moscow. Many observers, including State Duma deputies Yuri Shchekochikhin, Sergei Kovalev and Sergei Yushenkov, cast doubts on the official version and sought an independent investigation.
Some others, including David Satter, Yury Felshtinsky, Vladimir Pribylovsky and Alexander Litvinenko, as well as the secessionist Chechen authorities, claimed that the 1999 bombings were a false flag attack coordinated by the FSB in order to win public support for a new full-scale war in Chechnya.
This boosted the popularity of Prime Minister and former FSB Director Vladimir Putin, brought the pro-war Unity Party to the State Duma in the 1999 parliamentary election, and secured Putin as president within a few months.
Make no mistake - Putin ordered this callous bombing to garner support for a full scale war in Chechnya, the rest of the world stood by and let Putin escape this atrocity.
According to Amnesty International in 2007 the second war has killed up to 25,000 civilians since 1999 (many in the first months of the conflict), while up to another 5,000 people are missing. "Many thousands" of people are believed to be buried in unmarked graves.
A report of the Society for Threatened Peoples in November 2005 said that the total number of casualties of the first war was 80,000 and the total number of casualties of the second war was at least 80,000. French public radio channel «France Culture» estimates casualties between 100,000 and 300,000.
Russian President Vladimir Putin established direct rule of Chechnya in May 2000. The following month, Putin appointed Akhmad Kadyrov interim head of the pro-Moscow government. This development met with early approval in the rest of Russia, but the continued deaths of Russian troops dampened public enthusiasm. On 23 March 2003, a new Chechen constitution was passed in a referendum.
The 2003 Constitution granted the Chechen Republic a significant degree of autonomy, but still tied it firmly to Russia and Moscow's rule, and went into force on 2 April 2003. The referendum was strongly supported by the Russian government but met a harsh critical response from Chechen separatists; many citizens chose to boycott the ballot.
Akhmad Kadyrov was assassinated by a bomb blast in 2004. Since December 2005, his dim-witted son and quasi Muslim fundamentalist, Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the pro-Moscow militia known as kadyrovtsy, has been functioning as the Chechnya's de facto ruler. Kadyrov has become Chechnya's most powerful leader and, in February 2007, with support from Putin, Ramzan Kadyrov replaced Alu Alkhanov as president.
Next 👉 The Second Chechen War
Second Chechen War (1999-2009):
This war took place in Chechnya and the border regions of the North Caucasus between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, from August 1999 to April 2009. Putin's rise to power coincided with the outbreak of the Second Chechen War, which began in 1999 following a series of apartment bombings in Russia that were blamed on Chechen separatists.
Putin, then Prime Minister, launched a military campaign to suppress Chechen separatist forces and restore control over the region. The conflict resulted in widespread devastation and loss of life, with both sides accused of committing atrocities.
In mid-2000, the Russian government transferred certain military responsibilities to pro-Russian Chechen forces. The military phase of operations was terminated in April 2002, and the coordination of the field operations was given first to the Federal Security Service and then to the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the summer of 2003.
By 2009, Russia had disabled the Chechen separatist movement and mass fighting ceased. Russian army and Interior Ministry troops ceased patrolling. Grozny underwent reconstruction and much of the city and surrounding areas were rebuilt quickly. Sporadic violence continued in the North Caucasus; occasional bombings and ambushes against federal troops and forces of the regional governments in the area still occur.
The total number of civilians killed, including those who disappeared, adds up to between 14,800 to 24,100. However, the indicated war criminal Putin admitted that the accuracy of his estimates was not high. In 2007, Memorial estimated about 15,000 Russian soldiers have died in total, while others estimated up to 40,000. In May 2000, Chechen rebels reported on their website that they have lost 1,380 men since fighting started with Russia in the breakaway republic.
On the Russian side, military officials said they had lost 2,004 soldiers. By December 2002, 14,113 Chechen fighters were reported to have been killed. Between 2003 and 2009, 2,186 militants were reported to have been killed in the whole of the North Caucasus and 6,295 were captured.
In November 2006, self-exiled separatist leader Akhmed Zakayev said that "Putin has already killed more than 250,000 innocent Chechens". Goatman Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic, said: "we lost 300,000 people". In addition, Chechen journalist Kazbek Chanturiya put the figure of Chechens killed in two wars at 300,000.
Following the military campaign, Putin's government undertook efforts to rebuild the war-torn capital city of Grozny. While these efforts aimed to showcase Russia's control over Chechnya and promote stability, they also faced criticism for their lack of transparency and accountability, as well as allegations of corruption.
Next 👉 Chechen Muslim extremism contagion
Muslim extremists links:
The struggle garnered support from Muslim sympathizers around the world nonetheless, and some of them were willing to take up arms. Many commentators thought it was likely that Chechen fighters had links with international Islamist separatist groups.
The BBC said in an online Q&A on the conflict: "It has been known for years that Muslim volunteers have traveled to Chechnya to join the fight, reportedly after attending training camps in Afghanistan or Pakistan." Projecting back from the post-9/11 period, some have linked Chechen resistance to Russia to the al-Qaida global jihad movement.
However, the number of foreign jihad fighters in Chechnya was at most in the hundreds. Most Western observers prior to 11 September regarded the alleged al-Qaida links claimed by Russian government with skepticism.
The Clinton and Bush administrations, as well as other NATO governments, uniformly dismissed Moscow's rhetoric concerning the existence of Chechens in Afghanistan and Afghans in Chechnya as Soviet-style "agitprop" (agitation-propaganda) until 11 September occurred.
Islamic radicalisation also affected the Chechen separatist movement's support abroad. In 2013, the Tsarnaev brothers launched a suicide attack in Boston with a claim of jihad, accusing the United States of killing Muslims of Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine, weakening sympathy for the Chechen resistance globally and increasing xenophobia against Chechens and Muslims in the United States.
Rampant Islamic terrorism in Europe and the exclusive role of the Chechens on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, most notably Abu Omar al-Shishani, also put the Chechen separatist movement in jeopardy due to increasing anti-Islamic sentiment on the rise in Europe, even in some of the countries in Europe like Poland, who supported Chechens during and after conflicts with Russia.
Putin's government has imposed restrictions on religious freedoms in Chechnya, particularly targeting the Muslim population. There have been reports of mosque closures, harassment of religious leaders, and suppression of Islamic practices deemed inconsistent with Kadyrov's vision of Islam, which includes loving Gucci and Mercedes Benz luxuries together with secret drug and alcohol fuelled trips to Dubai and the degradation of woman and non “Muslims”. A political fashion parade to lure other half bearded Croats into military parade service, not to be confused with a real religious belief system.
Next 👉 TikTok warriors - the path to Ukraine
The path to Chechnyan fighters in Ukraine.
In 1994, Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s president, launched the first Chechen war, a bloody attempt to regain control of the territory; it ended in 1996 with Chechnya’s de facto independence intact. Three years later, Russia started another war, this time with Mr Putin at the helm, promising to “waste them in the outhouse” (like Mr Putin’s war in Ukraine, it was not officially called a war, but rather a “counter-terrorism operation”).
Putin received a helping hand from Kadyrov, a Sufi Muslim who had come to see siding with Russia as the only way to eradicate the Islamic fundamentalism gaining traction in the region. Mr Putin placed Kadyrov in charge of the region in 2003, but he was assassinated less than a year later. Ramzan, then just 27 years old, quickly took power.
Chechen leader Kadyrov announced his support for Putin’s war on Ukraine on Saturday the 26th of February, saying that “The president (Putin) took the right decision, and we will carry out his orders under any circumstances.”
Overall, Chechens are divided on whether to fight for or against Russia. In 2006, Moscow appointed pro-Russian leader Ramzan Kadyrov to rule Chechnya, and Kadyrov has pledged his support and loyalty to Putin and his invasion of Ukraine. Kadyrov has claimed that Chechen fighters loyal to Russia have been sent to Ukraine to fight for Putin, meaning it is entirely possible Chechens are now fighting Chechens.
The Sheikh Mansur Battalion is one of at least two all-Chechen battalions fighting in Ukraine against Russia. These Chechens are among the 20,000 foreign fighters that the Ukrainian government estimated to have joined its forces as of early March, near the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Chechens say they are ready to fight Russian forces as well as against the other ethnic Chechen soldiers who have been sent to fight on behalf of Russia.
Magomed Tushayev, who was one of the top military advisors for Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, helping to oversee a horrendous “purge” of LGBTQ+ people since 2017, was reportedly killed by Ukrainian forces. Tushayev, who is reported to have been part of a deployment of Chechen fighters to assist Russian president Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, met his demise while leading the 141 motorised regiment of the Chechnya National Guard.
Next 👉 The impact on Chechen society
The impact of the wars on the society in Chechnya:
The Russian government's control of all Russian television stations and its use of repressive rules, harassment, censorship, intimidation and attacks on journalists almost completely deprived the Russian public of the independent information on the conflict. Practically all the local Chechen media are under control of the pro-Moscow government.
Russian journalists in Chechnya face intense harassment and obstruction leading to widespread self-censorship, while foreign journalists and media outlets too are pressured into censoring their reports on the conflict.
The Second #Chechen War saw a new wave of war crimes and violation of international humanitarian law. Both sides have been criticised by international organizations of violating the Geneva Conventions. However, a report by Human Rights Watch states that without minimizing the abuses committed by Chechen fighters, the main reason for civilian suffering in the Second Chechen War came as a result of the abuses committed by the Russian forces on the civilian population.
As of 2008, the infant mortality rate stood at 17 per 1,000, the highest in Russia; There are reports of a growing number of genetic disorders in babies and unexplained illnesses among school children. One child in ten is born with some kind of anomaly that requires treatment.
Some children whose parents can afford it are sent to the neighbouring republic of Dagestan, where treatment is better; Chechnya lacks sufficient medical equipment in most of its medical facilities. According to the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), since 1994 to 2008 about 25,000 children in Chechnya have lost one or both parents. A whole generation of Chechen children is showing symptoms of psychological trauma. In 2006, Chechnya's pro-Moscow deputy health minister, said the Chechen children had become "living specimens" of what it means to grow up with the constant threat of violence and chronic poverty.
Also in 2006, a report by Médecins Sans Frontières, "the majority of Chechens still struggle through lives burdened by fear, uncertainty and poverty." A survey conducted by MSF in September 2005 showed that 77% of the respondents were suffering from "discernible symptoms of psychological distress". In 2007, the Chechen interior ministry has identified 1,000 street children involved in vagrancy; the number was increasing.
Governmental, social and commercial life remain hobbled by bribery, kidnapping, extortion and other criminal activity; reports by the Russian government estimate that the organized crime sector is twice the Russian average and the government is widely perceived to be corrupt and unresponsive.
Ramzan Kadyrov, (remember he is a former rebel fighter turned pro-Moscow leader), emerged as a key figure in Chechnya under Putin's rule by murder and corruption strategy. Kadyrov, appointed by #Putin as the President of Chechnya in 2007, has been accused of human rights abuses, including the persecution of political opponents, journalists, and members of the LGBTQ+ community.
Summary:
Vladimir Putin's approach to #Chechnya has been characterised by military intervention, political repression, and restrictions on religious freedoms, particularly targeting the Muslim population. While his policies have aimed to assert Russian control over the region and combat separatist movements and extremism, they have also led to allegations of human rights abuses and authoritarianism.
The Russian government under Putin has justified its actions in Chechnya as part of broader counterterrorism efforts aimed at combating extremism and maintaining stability in the North Caucasus region. However, these measures have often been criticised for their heavy-handedness and disregard for human rights.
As Kadyrov has made his move to secure an escape from Putin, the Chechens, russians and the Caucuses will look for Putin’s head and exact a dastardly revenge on the architect of their grief for the past 20 years and more. Vladimir Putin.
References and sources:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/country_profiles/2357267.stm
http://www.spacewar.com/2005/050330150830.fsye02lj.html
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2006/08/mil-060820-rianovosti01.htm
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War
https://archive.today/20041120124031/http://www.mosnews.com/news/2004/11/19/civiliandeath.shtml
KADYROV ON THE RUN! Chechen Warlord and Russia Elite FLEE COUNTRY. Unrests Mature // @TheRussianDude
https://web.archive.org/web/20160303193514/http://www.memo.ru/eng/memhrc/texts/5palest.shtml
https://sites.tufts.edu/atrocityendings/2015/08/07/russia-1st-chechen-war/
https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/eur46/015/2007/en/
http://www.jamestown.org/chechnya_weekly/article.php?articleid=2373419
KADYROV ON THE RUN! Chechen Warlord and Russia Elite FLEE COUNTRY. Unrests Mature // @TheRussianDude
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