Zach Thompson preps you for Sunday Night Baseball between the Padres and the Braves with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.
The Padres have taken the first three games of the season from the Braves in this exciting series that includes a pair of National League playoff teams from last season. The final game of the four-game set is the featured showdown matchup on Sunday Night Baseball, which will close out the awesome opening weekend of the 2025 MLB season. The standalone matchup will be featured in showdown DraftKings contests, so let’s look at some overall strategy for the Padres vs. Braves MLB DFS.
The pitching matchup for Sunday Night Baseball is veteran Nick Pivetta ($11,200) in his first start for the Padres against AJ Smith-Shawver ($10,800) for the Braves. Smith-Shawver is only 22 years old and making his second MLB start, but he has been very impressive during his rise through the Braves’ system. He’s filling in for Spencer Strider, so he’ll need to make the most of his opportunity if he wants to stick in Atlanta’s rotation.
Let’s take a look at what to expect and how to attack this Padres vs. Braves MLB DFS matchup from a DraftKings Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (ATL @ SD).
Padres vs. Braves DFS Showdown Strategy
Captain’s Pick
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($14,400): Tatis Jr. is off to a fast start to the season and is a great place to spend up on a Captain’s Pick play. He is 5-for-12 (.417) with a home run and a pair of stolen bases. He started the season with three hits and 23 fantasy points on Thursday night and followed that up with his first home run of the season on Friday night for 14 more fantasy points.
Fernando Tatis Jr. wasted NO time getting the Padres on the board with his first home run of the season 😤 pic.twitter.com/WFYO41ErjV
— MLB (@MLB) March 29, 2025
Last season, Tatis hit .276 with 21 homers and a .359 wOBA but his .387 xWOBA showed there’s still room for positive regression. He hit 12 of those 21 homers at home, where he had a 130 wRC+.
Given his power and speed potential, he has a high ceiling as my top Captain’s pick for this Braves at Padres MLB DFS matchup.
Jurickson Profar ($10,200): As a lower cost alternative that also brings good upside, I like Profar as my alternate Captain’s Pick. The former Padre has gone 3-for-12 (.25) with two runs scored and a walk. He’s hitting at the top of the order in place of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) and had a strong spring training. If the Braves offense gets going, Profar will likely be in the middle of the action.
UTIL Plays
Nick Pivetta ($11,200): If you’re grabbing a pitcher, Pivetta would be my preferred option. He brings great strikeout upside with over 10.5 K/9 in each of the last two seasons. He had 17 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings in spring training with a 3.38 ERA. In his last spring start, Pivetta went five shutout innings against the Rangers with five strikeouts and just one hit allowed. The Braves are hitting just .177 as a team this season and have scored only seven runs in the first three games of the season. Pivetta will look to extend their slow start Sunday night.
Marcell Ozuna ($8,600): Ozuna is 8-for-29 (.276) in his career against Pivetta, but six of those eight hits have been home runs. He is just 2-for-7 in the series so far, and the Padres have been very careful working to him, issuing him six walks. If he gets anything to hit from Pivetta, he has a very high ceiling as a mid-salary option.
Gavin Sheets ($4,000): Sheets smashed a solo home run on Thursday as a pinch-hitter, and he started the last two games as the team’s DH, going 1-for-6. The 28-year-old lefty is at DH and batting seventh against Smith-Shawver and will look to continue to build on his strong spring training. He hit .315 in his 24 Cactus League games with six home runs, three doubles and a .449 wOBA.
Fades
Ozzie Albies ($7,800): Albies is off to a slow start along with most of the Braves lineup. He does have a home run but is just 2-for-12 (.167) with a walk and three RBI. While he always has the potential to turn things around in a hurry, I don’t think he’ll get going in this contest since he is only 7-for-35 (.200) with eight strikeouts in his career against Pivetta. Last year, Albies had very strong splits against lefties and at home, but in this matchup he’s on the road and scheduled to face a righty.
THE OUTCOME
The Braves will get things turned around at some point this season, but they look to be pressing a little bit while the Padres are having a great time at Petco Park. In this primetime matchup, I’ll take the experience of Pivetta in his Padres debut and a big game from El Niño to get the Padres the sweep.
Final Score: Padres 4, Braves 2
